A few weeks ago I wrote a post asking folks their thoughts on when their project is at risk based on their schedule and cost performance. I received some very interesting and thoughtful responses. I wanted to share these with you so you could see what others think as their thoughts might be helpful in your work. Thanks to everyone for commenting. Good stuff indeed!
I include them verbatim below and note the LinkedIn Group on which they were posted so that you can see the other Groups that you might want to join if you’re not a member already.
Comments from the Group PMI Credentialed PMPs
Like the article, and yes, 5-10% cost variance is a good number to shoot for–if you do your homework conscientiously and regularly perform periodic ETCs. That’s the problem I’ve seen with most variances (schedule and cost)–without re-estimation of the work left to do, you’re really getting only half of the story because the scope you have at the beginning of the project may have changed or shifted, new constraints may have appeared, old assumptions debunked, etc. The most accurate projects I’ve ever seen or run were managed by bottom-up ETCs.
Posted by Sonja Streuber, PMP®, SSBB
Like Sonja I think staying within 5-10% of the budget is ok. 10-20% is yellow and over 20% is red for me.
Posted by NK Shrivastava, PMP, RMP, ACP
Like Sonja and NK, I agree with the 5% – 10%, but only after the project design has been completed. Prior to the completion of the requirements and design, a 20% metric is a good guideline. As we know, the more time spent in the planning and realization phase, the more accuracy is provided for the realization and implementation phases.
Posted by Matt Oates, PMP
Comments from the Group PMO-Project Management Office
As project progress, schedule / budget sometimes is over or under budget; proactively monitoring numbers gives enough indication where it is heading, when one looks back 3 to 4 weeks of snapshot.
I have used 10% (plus or minus for schedule and 5% with budget) to determine next course of action. However these numbers do change depending on size, environment and complexity.
Posted by Naresh Palan
On the one hand 10% represents a good default value for all projects and is one that is almost universally used. However, as per the opening statement…it depends. One of the first steps in taking on a project management role is to sit down with the client a gauge their sensitivity around such things as cost, schedule, scope/quality and benefits. This sensitivity analysis will drive a project specific measurement for key project metrics.
Posted by Guy Wilmington, P3 Management Services, Australia
Good stuff so far by Naresh and Guy. As is pointed out, it really depends on a number of variables, which would also include the stage of the project (20% over in an early phase can be far different than 5% over at a late phase). Guy nails it when he says you need to know the tolerances of your stakeholders, and you also need a good process to track your project closely so that you know timely when you hit those thresholds.
Posted by Bob Light
Comment from Group ESI International Alumni Program
Being “under budget and timing” is generally not the biggest problem most project/program managers and business enterprises are dealing with on large-scale complex efforts. For a project to be over budget or running off schedule at all is a risk, and indicates that the initial estimation was not either done appropriately or was not properly reviewed for accuracy including contingency for time and financial overruns, which are generally to be expected due to unknown constraints.
Constraints may include changes such as industry or federal regulations which might occur mid-stream and even changes in company policies, processes, budget or priorities. Changes may result in no longer requiring the project effort to be completed and brought to a halt. So having fore-knowledge as to what the cost and timing are by project phase or iteration is important if such actions should occur. If monies are left over from halting the effort, this portion of the former project budget can more easily be allotted to other priorities.
Anticipating risk is part of the project management job and should always be accounted for in the project estimation, budget forecasting process, schedule and contingency. Risks can lead to an entire project failure, but do not have to if dealt with appropriately and a risk mitigation strategy is developed based on at least the risks identified in the project scoping exercise at the onset. Cost and timing are not the only project factors that can lead to failure of the effort or rework to reengineer if the project must be re-evaluated mid-stream to account for unidentified or anticipated risks.
Posted by Lisa R. King, Certified Business Analyst
Comment from Group PMI Consulting Community
I always enjoy your topics; indeed you are one source that is genuinely interested in real Project Management real life dialog and exchanges in experience information between us all. Thanks for your time!
First, and most importantly and applies to any business segment, what is the appetite for RISK from your client, customer, or primary stakeholders? A directly proportionate value to the “How Far” question that must be considered first.
What is the skills and experience of your core Project Management Team to plan and execute a recovery plan? Are you a functional, matrixed or projectized team so we know the control the Project Manager has (assuming you’re a very experienced PM and not a risk yourself) and your team time share or dedication to just your project? Is this waterfall or a flavor if iterative methodology such as Agile or SCRUM? Let’s assume Waterfall for this discussion as it is arguably more popular today. But losing market share quickly in my view.
Rule of thumb? There isn’t any in my view. However, considering the above (among other critical elements I have not called out)…. What does your Project Management Plan with respect to the Risk Management Plan it contains say your trigger points are (control points if you will) for Cost or Schedule should be before certain action is taken to correct your CPI or SPI? These concerns are all over budget examples of “How Far over”, under budget or schedule are process issues in the estimating/planning process and can be managed through lessons learned if available, or Monte Carlo analysis if not.
Posted by Michael Kelly
Comment from Group Project Management Central-Best Networking Group for Project Managers
I think the author got it right…and wrong. First he invoked the GAO guideline of 10% over is a problem. Then, he says that many projects go over budget by more than 10% because they costs were not well estimated to begin with. Again, he is pretty much right there. But, even if you initially don’t have enough data to come up with an accurate estimate, you should be able to state the range of accuracy within some framework. This, then, gives you another kind of information to use as you monitor the budget.
The part that I think he gets most wrong is that “fixing a problem is just a matter of changing the numbers” (then enjoying a quick hot tub and hitting the slopes). And, he might be right that that is how it is done a lot of times in the real world.We owe it to our sponsors and clients to know when it is time to re-estimate with new data acquired so far in the project. Then, after proper review, we can proceed with “fixing a problem” by “changing the numbers”.
Posted by Wayne Holley, PMP
Comments from Group PM Community – Product/Portfolio/Program/Project Manager
I”m a “depends” fan, too. The initial project discussions should include agreement on the critical factors in the project, and risk management planning should include the tracking of the factors and identification of the trigger points for prevention or mitigation actions.
Another huge issue is the political one. Who are the big stakeholders in the project, and which parts of it are the most sensitive to them? It’s not just a scientific equation. It’s also a very human one.
So it depends. Not on some cloudy indecision, but on a precise evaluation of the moving parts and a clear agreement as to the management of each one.
Posted by Jim Milliken, PMP
We use a standard of 15% to put a project in red and 7% to put the project in yellow (metrics based on effort & duration variance). Anything under that is green, with the exception that the project manager has the ability to escalate the status at their discretion.
Posted by Val Lines, PMP